The Clinton Momentum

There has been a lot of talk about momentum recently. It is said that Obama got momentum after Feb 5th and that it was responsible for his large margins in the Potomac states and Wisconsin. And it was argued that it would carry him to victory in Ohio and Texas as well. I think it is wrong to assume that momentum is the defining factor of this primary campaign, follow me for more...

The remaining two Democratic candidates both have a lot of support in the party. The base level of support for each of them (in primaries) seems to be about 40% or even more if they both campaigned in that state. Turnout is huge in any case. So where does momentum make a difference?

It doesn't, really. And if it does, it's workings are actually much more complex than political pundits usually assume. For example, there is the momentum-backlash we saw in New Hampshire and that we may see again in Ohio and Texas today. The fact that Obama is starting to look like the sure winner of this primary actually energizes the base of Clinton supporters more than it depresses them. Why is that? My guess is that a lot of her supporters simply have been waiting for this moment for too long - finally to cast a vote for a female President! They simply don't want to let that moment go too quickly and without a fight. This is essentially a visceral response (which, by the way, should in no way mean that one cannot support Sen. Clinton for purely intellectual reasons, but I believe that this is not how the majority votes in the end). So far, so good. This has made the primary interesting, after all.

But what about momentum for Clinton after possible wins today? How would that look like? Well, my honest opinion here is that it won't last very long.
Firstly, it seems that Sen. Obama has prepared for this situation. I point to the leak about 50 superdelegates - as hard to believe as it is, there could be some truth behind it - and the fact he kept his fundraising numbers secret. He always had to assume that he would lose today, after all, it is Sen. Clinton's official firewall. Even if some of his supporters (me included) became overconfident in the last week about his changes, you can expect his campaign to know better and prepare for the worst.
So secondly, the caucus in Wyoming and the primary in Mississippi strongly favor Obama - no Clinton momentum will stop him there, even if it may depress his margins. AA's will react to Clinton momentum as do women when it comes to Obama momentum - they will basically counteract it for the reasons explained above. After these two states, we would still see Obama ahead by roughly 100 delegates and a long period of waiting until Pennsylvania. Momentum won't last that long.

So, to conclude this short analysis - let's not talk about momentum. There is no momentum at this point of the primary. It's about delegates. And personally, I don't see a path to victory for Clinton unless Michigan and Florida get a re-vote or a huge scandal tears down Obama completely.



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Re: The Clinton Momentum (2.00 / 1)

Tips and differing opinions?

No candidate bashing please, I'm interested in sound analysis and your real opinions. If you are here to hate, go somewhere else. There are enough diaries for you.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:23:22 PM EST

Re: The Clinton Momentum (2.00 / 2)

If she continues with momentum, I see it going to the convention where the superdelegates have to decide (which is what will happen no-matter, since neither candidate can mathematically win this thing outright).  I expect FLA and Michigan get some sorta redo (as is really only fair). If they are both close at the end- superdelegates will decide.  That's the system that's been in place for a good while now.  If that happens and she wins- I think that's the way it should be.  If he wins in the same scenario- that's the way it should be.  Now, if we want to change this whole primary/caucus/delegate system- then we need to look to the next election and take care of it prior.
Early to think about momentum, though, as we don't even have any results from today! This all could be moot.
by easyE on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:29:39 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

There is no truth behind that superdelegate nonsense. No one is talking about it


Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News
by steve468 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:29:43 PM EST

Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

I'm not saying that it is true. But I wouldn't be too surprised if he had some in his pocket to counteract any momentum.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:37:53 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

I heard a rumor that Tom Brokaw said something about it, but if it today shows her with some momentum, the supers may keep quiet or may switch.

There's no secret to Obama's fundraising - they've been saying for a couple of weeks it will be between $60-$70 million.  I don't know what they're waiting for - no surprise.


by cmugirl90 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:46:48 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

No surprise to the netroots. But it may be a surprise to many others. It's a definitive momentum killer if applied correctly.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:48:54 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

It's probably better to save the speculation for tomorrow, after the votes are counted.


by mattw on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:31:36 PM EST

Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

That may be so. I'm still hoping for Obama wins, but that would pretty much settle anything. So I try to think about the other scenario. I need to mentally prepare myself for this, after all.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:39:31 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

Yes. Well, at this point, only supers rallying around Clinton to an insane degree can get her the win, or some insane circumstance that causes Obama to start losing by 30+ everywhere. MI and FL can't be seated without the convention voting to seat them - and Obama's delegates aren't going to vote to disadvantage him, so they won't be seated unless it's clear he can win anyhow.

At this point, it would take a miracle to win the delegate count. I'm sure if her campaign is still going on Thursday, we'll see some serious projections of the remaining states that go all the way to the convention. Looking back to Feb 4, these were supposed to be the big wins that got her back in the game. Picking up 10 delegates isn't going to derail the trajectory of the race. Obama picked up 10 in Wisconsin alone.


by mattw on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:51:03 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (2.00 / 1)

True, but never count out the Clintons. I'm serious about this. I don't see a path to victory for her but I'm sure her campaign sees one. She wouldn't be throwing the kitchen sink if she didn't see a path to the nomination. She is not stupid. She know that she loses a lot of respect in the party by doing what she has done in the last week and she is not doing this for fun. Somehow, she believes she can still win this primary.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:57:30 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

Well, I think when she articulated the TX/OH strategy, she planned on more like 20 point wins in line with where she was polling, not a close race in tx and a small win in OH.


by mattw on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:58:56 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

If that is so, we will know it soon enough. I still have some respect for her and I think she will drop out as soon as she doesn't see a path to the nomination anymore.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:00:44 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (2.00 / 1)

Right, if Clinton wins two of the biggest states in the nation there will be no momentum to her campaign because Wyoming and Mississippi favor Obama. Do you really beieve this?

I don't know what 'momentum' means anyway. What this race comes down to is campaigning. Delivering your best arguements to the voters while trying to disparage the other candidate's messages. In addition, the media plays a role in defining the candidates for voters. Up until now voters have bought into Obama's message of hope and change and the media has helped to make him popular. Now, the hope and change message is starting to wear thin, particularly due to NAFTAgate and Rezko, and the media has been called out for Obama bias. If that's what you mean by Clinton momentum, then I guess I'd agree.

Let's see what happens tonight and over the next few months. MI and FL are almost certainly going to get a revote, so this has a long way to go.


by MediaFreeze on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:46:13 PM EST

Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

Why so aggressive?

I don't buy into the momentum myself, so we agree on that. The media bias seems to have become a credo of Clinton supporters (let's talk about cult) and I think that is totally wrong. The media never seems unbiased because we are all biased. Right now, my personal gut feeling is that the media is biased against Obama. But my head tells me that this is probably as wrong as your claim.

As two big states vs. small states: the margins are important. If he wins as many delegates in the small states as he loses in the big ones, then they should and will be equally important. This race is about delegates, not momentum.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:54:34 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (2.00 / 2)

Sorry for the tone. You're right, I'll try to be less sarcastic. I'm sorry.

I really disagree about the media bias issue. I don't think it is even close. The reason Obama is coming under scrutiny from the media now is because he made a really big screw-up with this NAFTAgate thing. You just can't star into a camera and say something so blatently untruthful. "It didn't happen." Yikes. They just have to pursue it.

Regarding delegates. It is indeed about delegates. All the delegates. The pledged delegates. The superdelegates, and the delegates from MI and FL where it looks like we are going to get a revote. So, this is a long way from over, really almost no matter what happens tonight. If Clinton does win tonight, I'd say that the advantage is on her side, since Obama's new problem with his hope and change narrative due to NAFTAgate and Rezko will not go away.


by MediaFreeze on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:29:25 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

In what particular demographic is all this momentum coming from?

White Men? Doubtful.

African-Americans? Again, doubtful.

Hispanics? Can she get a bigger lead than she already has?

Women? Obama has been eating into this group. I don't think it's suddenly doing a dramatic shift back.

The Eldely? They already support her in magnificent numbers.

So, where's the momentum?


by DoubleDs on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:56:57 PM EST

Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

As a tried to explain: I don't really buy into the momentum thing. That's why I think we should not be talking about it anymore.


by marcotom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:59:47 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (none / 0)

That's cool. I just wanted to make my point.


by DoubleDs on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:14:01 PM EST
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Re: The Clinton Momentum (2.00 / 2)

Hillary has had considerable movement in not only the Ohio and Texas polls, but also the national polls this past week.  That could well accelerate after today, if things go well for Hillary, and I'm not entirely convinced that Obama's expected wins in Wyoming and Mississippi would change that much.  If Obama continues to get bad press (for example, due to Rezko) and Hillary has a number of convincing wins (in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Puerto Rico, etc.) she could pull closer in the delegate count and perhaps win support from Edwards too (and gain his delegates).  And yes, there will be growing pressure to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations.

A lot of super delegates will be queasy about supporting a first term Senator who couldn't win a single one of the eight most populous states, encompassing nearly half of the U.S. population, except for his own.


by markjay on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:11:20 PM EST


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